On this side of the Atlantic, the football news that received quite a bit of attention over the past few days was Friday's FA Cup tie between Everton and Fulham, featuring Clint "Hat Trick" Dempsey, Landon Donovan, and Tim Howard. Everton won, and as SI.com put it,
Landon Donovan etched his name further into Everton lore with two assists in the Toffees' FA Cup victory over Fulham. The match featured Donovan and fellow U.S. alpha dog Clint Dempsey going head-to-head as opponents for the first time since an MLS match between the Los Angeles Galaxy and New England Revolution on May 6, 2006, and unlike that day, when Dempsey's side rolled to a 4-0 victory, Donovan stole the show with his contributions from the right wing.
Coming into the game, you would have been hard pressed to pick a favorite, however. So far this season, both Fulham and Everton have been solidly mid-table teams, sitting on 26 points to date. And when you look at the trends in goals scored and conceded (in the graph below), the two clubs look eerily similar (dots are individual matches, and the lines are the trends over time). The trend over the first 20 weeks of the season puts both of them at just over one goal per match scored and conceded, and the table seems to reflect their similarities.*
Interestingly, the data show that Everton's defense has tightened up somewhat in the second 10 weeks of the campaign, while Fulham's has stayed mainly level (with the exception of the 0-5 home defeat against Manchester United).
One question, of course, is how these very similar records have been produced, so I took a quick peek at shots taken and conceded, along with one of my favorites, offensive and defensive efficiency (as measured by the goals to shots ratios).
Lo and behold, some interesting differences emerge. Everton's own shot production has stayed above the trend in shots they have conceded - simply put, Everton have outperformed their opponents on a consistent basis this season, as measured in the season-long trends. In contrast, Fulham's trend lines for shots produced and conceded were very similar in the first ten weeks but have since diverged somewhat, with the Cottagers allowing their opponents to take an increasing number of shots.
To what effect? Noticeably, over the course of the first 5 months of the season, the Toffees' opponents have begun to have an ever harder time converting shots to goals, while the level of offensive efficiency has remained very stable (albeit at a lower level compared to the rest of the league). In contrast, despite some unusual matches (both on the offensive and defensive end), Fulham's overall trend has been much less variable, and right around the .1 mark (or 1 in 10).
Of course, where this season's path will lead either club is anyone's guess, but aside from finding a finisher, Fulham may be well advised to hope for Mark Schwarzer's speedy return, and for their defensive play to make their mark in the second half of the season. In contrast, the data support the common wisdom that finishing is the Achilles heel of both clubs - despite Clint Dempsey's impressive season so far or Landon Donovan's excellent contributions in his short stay this time around.
* In case you are wondering: I pay more attention to the trend lines rather than single matches because they are useful for eliminating some of the noise or outliers (like Fulham's 6-0 victory over QPR) in the underlying data. Some matches are truly unusual and therefore we want to adjust for those and understand where a club is headed over the span of more than a single match or two.
