A quick follow up on how good Barcelona are this year; in a few days, I'll do a more involved post on where the leagues stand at this point in the season, but I thought I'd share this little tidbit for the Barca aficionados out there - and those of you who love to hate on Barca. Whether you're a fan or a hater, you have to be impressed with how good they have been this year. To me, the only team that comes close is Dortmund who are playing some really exciting football.
So here is a graph of offensive and defensive goal to shot (Reep) ratios for all teams in the Big 4 leagues. A higher offensive ratio means that the team is more efficient on offense - the team scored more goals on fewer shots - while a higher defensive ratio means that the team is less efficient on defense - it allowed more goals on fewer shots against. When plotted together, the best teams should be located in the lower right hand quadrant: here, we will find teams that are offensively and defensively efficient (they score more on fewer tries and their opponents have to take more shots to score against them).
Here's where the teams stand on these two dimensions two thirds through the season.
As you can see, Barcelona is off the charts. Its offensive goal to shot ratio is so much better than anyone else's, they have put considerable distance between themselves and the rest of Europe. Mind you, in the lower right hand corner we do see some really good teams like Real Madrid or Dortmund, but Barca are in a league by themselves. The only team that also kind of stands out (in a positive way) is Dortmund, which has the best defensive goal to shot ratio in Europe - that is, they make it very difficult for opponents to score - but their offense can't rival Barcelona's (perhaps because they're playing in a more balanced league?).
So here's the question of the week: can Barcelona stay off the charts? I think there are two good reasons that speak against. First, defense. Barcelona is the best offensive team in Europe, but on defense several top teams seem to be just as good or better. So to continue winning, they have to make sure opponents stay away from their goal, and they won't be able to do that each and every time. Second, there's regression to the mean. Barcelona's schedule is relentless; assuming they have been slightly over-performing (with only one league loss this year), they're due for a disappointment or two and on the offensive metrics they're likely to move a little closer to the pack (that is, to the left on the graph above). It's good news for Barca opponents, and for fans it would guarantee a thrilling remainder of the La Liga and Champions League seasons.
PS: It's notable that a good number of the Italian teams do not perform well on these metrics. Another indicator that Serie A is lagging behind?
