Thursday, October 28, 2010

Goal To Shot Ratios: Comparing Teams Across Leagues in 2010-11

If you're a regular reader of this blog you will have noticed that one of the things I have been interested in for some time is to figure out how the leagues compare. That is, are there systematic differences across leagues in terms of style of play, offensive and defensive production, or fouls and cards? Of course, leagues are made up of teams, so another way to look at this is to compare teams across leagues. This will tell you which teams are really the best teams across Europe (well, at least across the leagues I look at). It also tells you how much variation there is across the leagues.

So following on the earlier posts about goal to shot ratios in the Premiership and across the big four leagues, here are g/s ratios for all teams so far this season.


If you ask me, what stands out is (a) how much variation there is, and (b) what a juggernaut Chelsea has been so far this year.

Regarding variation across the leagues, clearly some teams can't score a goal, even if you give them 20 shots on goal. This includes La Coruna and Osasuna who need about thirty - yes, 30! - shots to score a goal. In stark contrast, Chelsea has scored about 1 goal for every 5 shots they have taken.

How good has Chelsea been? One way to gauge this is to look at the x-axis to locate the "normal" goal to shot ratio  of .111. Clearly, a good number of teams cluster right around this long-term average value. Barca, Real Madrid, Schalke, Newcastle, or Napoli all fall into this category. But even lesser teams like Moenchengladbach or Stoke can be found here, and Bayern's mediocre season so far is clearly reflected in its ranking here. In contrast, Chelsea is (not quite but almost) twice as "good" in converting shots to goals (the average goal/shot ratio per match for Chelsea is .197 so far this year). Surprisingly, middling Wolfsburg (.184) and overachieving Mainz (.181) aren't all that far behind.

Feel free to print out the graph and ponder if over a beer or two with your friends. Let me know if you see something I missed.