I'm a little behind on some of my data collection for this season, but in case you were wondering where things stand so far this year on goal to shot ratios and other common metrics, I'll be providing some updates in the days ahead. So here's a first small installment to whet your appetite. This one is on goal to shot ratios (one of the stats we have Charles Reep to be thankful for).
Recall that, in the 2009-10 season, there was a fairly narrow distribution in goal/shot ratios across teams (these measure how often teams score, given the number of shots they take). In 2009-10, the EPL followed Charles Reep's 9 shot maxim (that, on average, one goal is scored for every nine shots) almost to the decimal. Reep's prediction would yield a goal to shot ratio of .111, whereas the 2009-10 EPL season yielded a .116 ratio.
Here's where we are so far this year (as of 18 October 2010).
Any surprises? Sure, if you ask me. So far Chelsea is way ahead of its pace from last year. This is something that will be hard to sustain and perhaps reflects their relatively easy schedule very early in the year. But Blackpool's record so far also stands out - who would have thought?! - along with West Brom's or Wolves. At the low end, Aston Villa and Liverpool are clearly below where they want to be and where they were last year. Over the course of the season, I'd expect a regression to the mean, with the top clubs moving closer to the .111 and for the lower ranked clubs to move up somewhat.
Stay tuned for more before too long!
